Modeling and simulation of the dynamics of Monkeypox (Mpox), in Nigeria

Abstract

Monkeypox (Mpox) is a Zoonotic disease transmitted via contact with infected rodents or contaminated bodies/bodily fluids. Mpox has caused significant setbacks globally, particularly in Africa. Despite continuous monitoring and interventions, the lack of timely detection and inadequate access to effective control measures hinders efforts to combat the Mpox outbreaks. In this paper, we develop and analyse a deterministic model for transmission dynamics of mpox, integrating early screening and therapy, isolation, and treatment as control interventions. The model is segmented into two interacting populations: humans and rodents population. The model is applied to daily reported cases of Mpox in Nigeria from January, 2023 to November 2024, using non-linear least square methods. The numerical simulation of the model was derived using the fourth order Runge-Kutta iterative methods implemented in MATlAB. We investigated the effect of each control parameter on the infected individuals. Results reveal the double control strategies have great impact on reducing the outbreak and modification parameter play a significant role in reducing the rate of interaction between susceptible individuals and infected rodents.