Modeling the impact of rehabilitation programs on the propagation of banditry crime: a case study of Katsina State, Nigeria

Abstract

Banditry has emerged as a critical socio-economic and security challenge in north western Nigeria, particularly within Katsina State, severely disrupting rural economies and community stability. While conventional approaches heavily rely on kinetic military interventions, there is a growing paradigm shift toward non-kinetic strategies, such as rehabilitation programs. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission and control dynamics of banditry crime, explicitly incorporating a rehabilitation compartment for reformed individuals. The population is stratified into distinct epidemiological classes representing vulnerable, susceptible, actively recruited, and rehabilitated individuals. We derive the basic reproduction number  for criminal propagation to evaluate the threshold conditions necessary for banditry eradication or persistence. Stability analysis of the model shows that the banditry-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when ​<1, suggesting that effective rehabilitation and reduced recruitment rates can successfully curb criminal propagation. Numerical simulations are conducted using localized parameters from Katsina State to validate the analytical results. The findings demonstrate that expanding rehabilitation programs significantly reduces the active criminal pool over time, though its long-term success remains highly sensitive to the rate of relapse back into banditry. Ultimately, this model offers a predictive framework for policymakers, demonstrating that integrated rehabilitative strategies provide a more sustainable long-term solution to security challenges than punitive measures alone.