Evaluating the impact of correctional services on recidivism in Nigeria using principal component and regression discontinuity analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the comparative effectiveness of Nigeria’s correctional services, specifically custodial and non-custodial interventions, in reducing recidivism relative to the traditional prison service. Using principal component analysis (PCA) and regression discontinuity design (RDD), the study analyzes demographic and criminal profiles of recidivists across prison, custodial, and non-custodial service data in Kebbi State. Results show that correctional services, particularly non-custodial measures such as probation and community service, significantly reduced recidivism compared to conventional imprisonment. The findings underscore the need for expanded adoption of rehabilitative and community-based approaches in criminal justice reforms.